Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.285000 4.773084 5.367343 6.171945 7.285698 8.877655 11.603454
2025-01-05 3.572809 4.107117 4.809453 5.866534 7.581996 10.754573 20.047542
2025-01-12 3.150564 3.677057 4.396049 5.541687 7.589088 12.177542 39.647452
2025-01-19 2.899718 3.424263 4.162550 5.395995 7.801015 14.439513 NaN
2025-01-26 2.795588 3.352435 4.168493 5.626152 8.882856 22.791806 NaN
2025-02-02 2.742575 3.342075 4.259530 6.028863 10.762513 80.261292 NaN
2025-02-09 2.634920 3.237477 4.180812 6.079087 11.774066 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.549207 3.156578 4.128316 6.168128 13.118258 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.418353 2.996005 3.921467 5.869443 12.565055 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.349340 2.926337 3.865060 5.903183 13.684256 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.280307 2.851580 3.791533 5.880519 14.576587 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.199698 2.753755 3.668217 5.713846 14.449332 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.169668 2.737496 3.696169 5.947905 17.852881 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.080695 2.621964 3.532476 5.654092 16.451858 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.996417 2.510880 3.371429 5.352176 14.884575 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.937221 2.437995 3.277210 5.216663 14.720573 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.922321 2.435590 3.312841 5.430471 18.340367 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.922390 2.457248 3.395639 5.802837 28.017749 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.890506 2.424088 3.369105 5.849121 34.211422 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.863692 2.398073 3.354560 5.931090 46.677360 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.808276 2.321793 3.235001 5.655696 36.618600 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.781666 2.293356 3.210235 5.686866 46.512299 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.752279 2.259066 3.171500 5.665931 56.213493 NaN NaN